There will be more on this later, believe me.

I just wanted to pop over here and write something brief about this, mostly to jog my own memory for later.

I’ve been working on a series of articles for here about religion, atheism, spiritualism, and where my current beliefs sit on all of this. That’s all a bit complicated, but suffice to say I’m probably what you’d call a “wavering skeptic.”

Anyway, I’ve been participating in a lot of the discussions on reddit regarding atheism and such. And I now think I have some understanding of the reasons many who embrace the Scientific Method tend towards atheism (or at least agnosticism): that being the concept of Arguing from The Null.

The Null Hypothesis is very important to the Scientific Method. Most of the truly interesting science happens when you test against the null, and H0 is perhaps the most radical idea anybody has ever invented. And I think a lot of theists don’t fundamentally understand the perspective of the Argument from The Null. You are either for something, or against something. It’s impossible that you could be arguing from a neutral position, a position that allows any valid theory to be proffered, tested, debated, buried in soft peat for three months, recycled as firelighters, and then perhaps even accepted.

I forgot just how awesome H0 really is. Thank you, arguing on reddit.

Why “Worse is Better” .. a point many pundits miss

The old teeth gnashing about the prevalence of “good enough” technology is making the rounds again, for some reason. This is an issue that comes up from time to time in the tech world, and it’s always an interesting discussion.

It’s no secret that I’m on the side of “Worse is (often) Better”. I’ve ranted repeatedly about this both in person and in various online forums. I’ve talked about “good enough often is” so many times with colleagues and the like I’m sick of even having the argument anymore.

But the biggest reason why “good enough often is” can be summed up by the reasons why mp3s became the success they are today. To a trained ear, the format has some limitations, and even my crappy hearing can sometimes tell the difference. It certainly is inferior to the technical quality of the average CD.

However, in my world I’m never in a position to actually HEAR the difference unless I’m listening for it. Most of my music listening takes place either in transit from place to place (be it by car, bus/train, or other conveyance), or as background in my home. In either place, I’m in an “imperfect environment” anyway, so “good enough” is just that. Even if I had lossless files playing on a THX-certified player with a $300 headset, I’d still be in a noisy environment, with the 60db of traffic noise around me dulling my low-frequency hearing into oblivion.

“Good enough is” precisely because most of the time we’re not in a laboratory. Most human beings spend their days in environments (be they work or play) that are never going to be “perfect listening rooms”, so using an audio format that is lossy doesn’t matter.

You can look at every other situation were “Worse is Better” and come to the same conclusion. Large laptops (“desktop replacements”) are not as powerful and have inferior displays to desktop machines, but are more portable.  Netbooks are desirable over than large laptops to some, precisely because a large laptop is cumbersome to balance on your knee on the bus, even though netbooks are typically slower and have inferior ergonomics than larger laptops: tablets are even “better/worse”, as are smartphones. Monoaural audio devices like Bluetooth headsets often have slightly better range and are not insignificantly cheaper than their stereo counterparts, even though the monoaural Bluetooth profile offers less fidelity.

The trick is finding the tipping point where worse gets better. There’s a saying in the photography community that says “the best camera is the one you have when the shot appears,” an axiom that proves how wrong I was about smartphone cameras (synopsis of that opinion: they’re shite, always will be, and therefore worthless). Even the crappy camera on my original Palm Treo 650 (“1.2 megapixels”, but that makes it sound better than it really was) was “the one I had when the shot appears” in more than one occasion. Flipping through iPhoto I find a lot of really good pictures I’ve taken with whatever camera I happen to have in my hands.. which usually is a smartphone. Meanwhile, my $1200 digital SLR kit sits collecting dust in my closet.

Are the photos technically inferior to what I can do with the digital SLR? Most certainly. I can complain all day about the “noise” in the camera phone photos, the sloppy focus, the lack of depth of field, and even the quantization errors in the often sloppy JPEG encoding. But I have the shot, where I wouldn’t have the shot if I had to find my DSLR, take it out, warm it up, and shoot.

But the greater point? I have to “switch gears” to even notice the imperfections in the photos. After they’ve been printed on my (“good enough”) inkjet printer and housed in a small frame, I still get a lot of enjoyment out of many of the photos I’ve taken of events and loved ones with.. well, quite shitty cameras. Old 110 film was “good enough” for many in the 70’s, even though it was inferior in most ways to 126 film (and not to mention crap compared to 35mm).

I guess in this regard I should have looked to my own career path as an example, and I didn’t.  VoIP, be it Skype or whatever, is a great example of how “worse is better” has played out.  The “old telephone network” was engineered for robustness.  In our post-Bell System world, we view it as way over-engineered.  VoIP is, in many ways, way worse.  The audio quality can be inferior, it requires a reasonably well engineered network (or at minimum “over-engineered” bandwidth) (contrast that to conventional dialtone, which works at insane distances over very poor quality cable), and is very ‘portable’.  Oh, and because of a lot of competition in the sphere and the economics of the product, essentially free.

“Worse is better” only because the people who define “worst” as solely being some artificial (and often just perceived) advantage a legacy technology has.  Vinyl records are far inferior at technical sound reproduction than any digital method with a reasonable sample rate, period.  End of story.  There’s no arguing that from a purely scientific stance.  Even high bitrate lossy codecs can provide more accurate sound reproduction than vinyl, at a significantly reduced “cost” and at lower maintenance.

Vinyl may “sound better” (and I’d argue that as well), but it isn’t technically superior in any scientifically measurable way.  The irony: those who think that presence is a desirable trait in audio (mostly because they don’t have any high-frequency hearing anymore) and don’t like “brilliance” think vinyl is subjectively superior to both CDs and MP3s.  But that’s only because they’re applying the “worse is better” ideal.  Poor fidelity reproduction is better than precisely, scientifically engineered reproduction.

And that’s the point.  The point is that the word “worst” is misapplied.  It’s not really worse.  It’s just the rules of what’s required is redefined by each generation of user.  Modern music listeners are willing to sacrifice a small amount of fidelity for considerably more portability and accessibility.   Music isn’t something they listen to in their living room turned listening room.  It’s become a part of their daily life.   Many non-geeks now have digital music libraries that far exceed even what an audiophile would have had 40 years ago, in both quantity of “albums” and the genres it spans.

“Survival of the fittest” is a much better way of wording “worse is better.”  Fitness is defined by the environment: smarter but ugly can often win over dumb and beautiful.

WikiLeaks..

I have only one question for people who feel WikiLeaks is doing a disservice and is “dangerous.”

If “Democracy” is defined as a free and open society, by which every member of society has a voice, how can a “Democracy” have secrets it keeps from its citizenry? How can Truth ever be harmful to a free and open society that is “of the people, by the people, and for the people?”

The terrorists are not the ones who open our eyes to the destruction our idiotic foreign policy has wrought. The terrorists are the traitors who seek to squelch the Truth because it is incompatible with their beliefs, irreconcilable with their theories, or simply inconvenient.

“One of the amendments to the Constitution… expressly declares that ‘Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof, or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press,’ thereby guarding in the same sentence and under the same words, the freedom of religion, of speech, and of the press; insomuch that whatever violates either throws down the sanctuary which covers the others.”

Those words were penned by one of the biggest Terrorists of them all: Thomas Jefferson.  He had the brass balls to help start a war over injustices he saw, including the suspension of the free press.

Some clarification on phone numbers.

A few people seem to be a bit confused by this, so I want to make a couple of things clear.

The 503-564 number was a Google Voice number. It has been changed to a 503-451 number (although the 503-564 number will continue to work for three months, according to Google Voice). This is my primary contact number: it is the one most of you should be calling most of the time, and is suitable for release to others. As it is a Google Voice number, it can accept SMS text-only messages. It cannot accept multimedia. The Google Voice number rings every phone I have all the time.

The 503-442 number is my (primary) cell phone. While it can be called directly in certain situations, I consider it to be a number to be used only when expedience is required. Note that I tend to leave my cell phone in the car, or often go without charging it in the evening and it dies.

Note that I have at least three other phone numbers. As a rule, these are used sporadically and probably aren’t reliable. I try to not expose those numbers, but I sometimes forget and grab the “backup cell” and call people without routing the call through Google Voice. Yeah, it happens.

FlowchartA little bit of a side rant here on what “steampunk” means.

Before I start, let me just say that I don’t have a problem with any of what I’m about to piss on.  I love this kind of genre play, and I think that a lot of the artwork and stuff created by the many talented artists in Steampunk really kick ass.

However, I think something needs to be said about “keeping it real” in the interests of fairness.

The way I’ve always understood “Steampunk”, it’s a genre based on an alternative historical timeline that assumes we never transitioned from steam power to the internal combustion engine, for whatever reason (and the reasons are quite varied and really unimportant).  There’s usually some history rewritten as a result: Charles Babbage actually built his Difference Engine (and it is used to “power” much of society), Nikola Tesla was successful in his 1899 Colorado Springs Experiments, some (not experienced in our reality) natural disaster had far reaching consequences,  and/or the popular science-fiction of Jules Verne and H.G. Wells became true as written.

In short, there’s a fairly specific time period that “Steampunk” looks like it is trying to emulate: that of the late Victorian era.  In fact, most of the seminal works of Steampunk seem to want to wrap themselves in the Romanticism of that era, regardless of how far forward they put themselves in the timeline (see: a few Doctor Who episodes I can name: in fact, the present image of the TARDIS is, itself, very “Steampunk” in character).

Yet, at the same time, it seems that a lot of us in the Steampunk-admiring fandom forget the world that we’re actually supposed to be living in.  We forget that “Metropolis” (the 1927 Fritz Lang silent film) is probably, at best, in Steampunk’s very near future, but probably not in the present.  I see Art Deco influences up-played, Art Nouveau downplayed.  An excellent example of some of this can be seen here at BuzzFeed: some of the artwork is excellent, but is it really Steampunk?  Are silent films even technically “Steampunk”?

I’d venture to guess, if I understand the timeline correctly, that the cinema didn’t really take hold until the early 1900’s at best.. and it wasn’t until the 1910’s that it really caught on.  As I understood it, “the new movies” were largely shown in burlesque (and the later Vaudeville) houses, and rarely as stand-alone features until well into the 1910’s, if not even the early ’20s.  Okay, I’m willing to accept some “Steaming” of the tech to make it work, and the invention of the motion picture is inevitable.. but given that it requires the production of celluloid film in enough quantities to shoot miles of the stuff, it’s largely a product of the early 20th Century, and of the petroleum revolution that ends the Steam Age in our reality.

“Steampunk” is more ferrotype, less celluloid.

tintype of the author and a female friend

Tintype of feedle and Norma, SteamCon 2010

At SteamCon II this year, I observed something that kind-of made me sad as somebody who’s in this fandom for the history.  A wonderful Gentleman was doing ferrotypes, even though conditions for the same frankly sucked.  He was using period techniques, even using a period camera (although his plates were aluminum and not “japanned iron”).   He even had a wonderful cart, not unlike what you would have seen in a country fairground of the era: he completely had the “travelling photographer” thing down as you would expect to see circa 1885.  The sad part: he was not promoted at all by the convention (in fact, they seemed to kick him to the curb at the earliest opportunity when a vendor complained about the odor), and eventually was relegated to a dark corner of the hotel’s atrium out in front of his room.

Why was this guy not “front and center”?  I had two ferrotypes made, and they are something I will cherish about my SteamCon experience.  This is the sort of thing we should be embracing as “Steampunks”.  (Side note: He’s in Salem, and deserves your business: http://yaquinaphotography.com/)

Maybe my experience as a Renaissance Fair rat comes through a little strongly here.  I’ve already ranted a bit about the tendency towards poor hat etiquette.  I have a whole laundry list of complaints, quite honestly.. but this is at the center of many of them.

This is the Victorian era, people.  We don’t have to follow everything down to the letter (goddess knows the racism and sexual repression alone is something we could do without), but at least let’s try to maintain the class, lustre, and genteel-ness of the era we love.  To throw that away is to miss the greater point of the Age of Steam, and turns us all into that flowchart above.  Does it have gears?  No, guess I better add some more…

Mooooooving…

Hey everybody.

As a few of you know, I’m moving again. This time, in the same building: from the third to the first floor. I now have a 1 bedroom!

I need as much help as I can get getting stuff boxed up and just moved. There’s really not that much stuff, it’s just I can’t imagine myself going up and down the stairs the 100 or so times it would take to get everything moved. I have a friend coming by in the evening to help with the furniture-y bits.. I just need help moving stuff.

If you can help, please just stop by on Saturday after 10:00am, or call me. My address is 315 High Street in Oregon City. Push the buzzer for 105 and I’ll come let you in.

Thanks, in advance for the help.

Hat etiquette

Does nobody understand proper hat etiquette anymore?

Okay, I know this is a convention, and people are dressed in costumes. However, we’re supposed to be in the Victorian age (or at least in a retro-future world rooted in Victorian ideals). We’re supposed to act that way.

The biggest violations? Last night at the Cabaret. It’s theatre, dammit: MEN ARE SUPPOSED TO REMOVE THEIR HATS WHEN IN A THEATRE. Or a restaurant. Or, for that matter, any “intimate” interior space (generally speaking, one can leave their hat on in corridors and large open indoor spaces, such as a lobby or arcade). In addition to the “remove your hats when you are indoors” rule, it’s also polite to those who are sitting behind you.

Another big violation: the “lady in a lift” rule. If you are in an elevator and a lady boards, take it off, dammit.

Lastly, and this is another one that gets under my skin, is failing to remove your hat at the dining table. And for crying out loud, when you do remove your hat, you don’t put it on the table.

Come on, people. We’re supposed to be demonstrating ideals from a more “enlightened” and gentler age. Let’s act like it by using the manners incumbent on the era we’re playing.

Quick Note from Steamcon…

Just a quick note from Steamcon II. Having a great time..

There’s an awful lot of really cool costume bits here. Norma and I are both taking a lot of pictures, I’ll post some a little later.

I also had a great opportunity to have a ferrotype made. The conditions weren’t the greatest for the photographer.. it is really cold, and the beautiful interior space of the SeaTac Airport Marriott apparently has UV blocking windows (ferrotypes typically need a lot of blue and UV light).

Also went to a panel this morning with Jake Von Slatt. He’s the guy who makes all the interesting keyboards and stuff. I took video, I’ll be posting that to YouTube a bit later.

Okay, off to find Norma and get some lunch..

More on airport security

Security expert (and all around good guy) Bruce Schneier has posted a laundry list of complaints and such regarding the TSA nonsense. One thing that struck me on his analysis was the following quote:

A typical dental X-ray exposes the patient to about 2 millirems of radiation. According to one widely cited estimate, exposing each of 10,000 people to one rem (that is, 1,000 millirems) of radiation will likely lead to 8 excess cancer deaths. Using our assumption of linearity, that means that exposure to the 2 millirems of a typical dental X-ray would lead an individual to have an increased risk of dying from cancer of 16 hundred-thousandths of one percent. Given that very small risk, it is easy to see why most rational people would choose to undergo dental X-rays every few years to protect their teeth.

More importantly for our purposes, assuming that the radiation in a backscatter X-ray is about a hundredth the dose of a dental X-ray, we find that a backscatter X-ray increases the odds of dying from cancer by about 16 ten millionths of one percent. That suggests that for every billion passengers screened with backscatter radiation, about 16 will die from cancer as a result.

Given that there will be 600 million airplane passengers per year, that makes the machines deadlier than the terrorists.